Centre for American Studies

Pakistan–United States Relations Tracker

Pakistan-US relations, historically defined by cycles of close security alignment followed by estrangement, have entered a period of active re-engagement since mid-2025 — anchored in a reciprocal tariff and trade framework, a landmark critical-minerals partnership, and a renewed counterterrorism dialogue. Trade is now the most substantively active dimension, with the US remaining Pakistan's largest single-country export market. This is a living reference, revised as new agreements, visits and data are published.

Diplomatic Engagement

Engagement has broadened beyond the traditional executive-branch/military channel to include parliamentary diplomacy: a US congressional delegation including Rep. Ryan Zinke and Rep. Michael Baumgartner visited Islamabad in July 2026 for talks spanning trade, education, investment and institutional partnerships. (Mettis Global, Jul 2026)

Trade & Tariffs

Jul 2025: Pakistan negotiated a reduction of the US "reciprocal tariff" on its exports from an initially announced 29% to 19%, confirmed by US executive order on 31 July 2025 — a more favourable rate than India (25%), Bangladesh (20%) or Vietnam (20%). (Dawn, Express Tribune)

Jul 2026: Formal negotiations on a Pakistan-US Agreement on Reciprocal Trade were held in Washington (9–10 July), covering tariffs, market access and investment; both sides described "significant progress." (Express Tribune, Times of Islamabad)

Goods trade reached $9.4 billion in the last fiscal year, with the US as Pakistan's largest single-country export destination. Deputy PM/FM Ishaq Dar has stated Pakistan is "confident" bilateral trade can double to $20 billion within five years. (Dawn)

Critical Minerals & Investment

Sept 2025: Pakistan and US Strategic Metals signed MoUs under a $500 million critical-minerals agreement, following a three-phase development plan (Phase 1, 2025–26: exporting readily available minerals; later phases build refining capacity).

2 Oct 2025: Pakistan dispatched its first-ever shipment of rare earth and critical minerals to the US under the agreement — antimony, copper concentrate, and rare earths including neodymium and praseodymium. (PR Newswire, SFA Oxford)

Security & Defense Cooperation

The US-Pakistan Counterterrorism Dialogue has met annually, with rounds in Islamabad (12 Aug 2025) and Washington (4 Aug 2026, 4th round), both jointly naming the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), ISIS-Khorasan and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) as shared priority threats. (US State Dept, 2025, The Diplomat, 2026)

The US approved a $686 million sustainment and upgrade package for Pakistan's F-16 fleet (Block 52 and Mid-Life Upgrade variants), intended to keep the fleet operationally effective to 2040 and framed by Washington as strengthening counterterrorism interoperability. (The Media Line)

Joint counterterrorism exercise "Inspired Gambit-2026" — the 13th in a series running over a decade — was held in Punjab, Pakistan.

Multilateral & Economic Context

Separately from the bilateral track, Pakistan remains under a 37-month IMF Extended Fund Facility (approved Sep 2024) and a 29-month Resilience and Sustainability Facility (approved May 2025); the IMF's review completion in May 2026 released roughly $1.1B (EFF) and $220M (RSF). The US is the IMF's largest shareholder but this is a multilateral, not bilateral, facility. (IMF)

Pakistan has reportedly sought a bilateral exchange-stabilization support facility of up to $10 billion from the US Treasury — unconfirmed/under discussion as of this writing, not a concluded agreement. (Ynet News)